Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 21.026587 23.046347 25.308013 28.057031 31.348756 35.218549 40.198301
2025-01-12 17.820474 20.503802 23.781320 28.195675 34.188102 42.389156 55.208003
2025-01-19 15.842706 18.981115 23.113502 29.238211 38.691972 54.111581 85.565346
2025-01-26 13.838630 17.050272 21.511285 28.620618 40.821406 64.258994 129.140945
2025-02-02 12.440184 15.694949 20.430482 28.494517 43.856963 79.266241 232.171258
2025-02-09 11.465477 14.779608 19.813269 28.955619 48.388627 104.221446 668.606727
2025-02-16 10.568100 13.846817 18.994826 28.843572 51.863530 134.569525 14020.703015
2025-02-23 9.871663 13.125812 18.392956 28.979487 56.231436 184.602125 NaN
2025-03-02 9.301914 12.531369 17.904255 29.214170 61.286883 273.046216 NaN
2025-03-09 8.782674 11.958645 17.363599 29.196749 65.832783 426.554648 NaN
2025-03-16 8.395755 11.560240 17.076589 29.683146 72.932448 921.603081 NaN
2025-03-23 7.995886 11.100626 16.610500 29.622568 78.171541 2783.576569 NaN
2025-03-30 7.627969 10.688991 16.233546 29.841872 86.257289 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 7.288058 10.301229 15.864614 30.034704 95.573387 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 7.062402 10.095342 15.838538 31.223969 115.101657 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 6.710108 9.635841 15.233864 30.553089 120.633371 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 6.432677 9.291221 14.833523 30.424693 132.220599 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 6.225970 9.059482 14.647482 30.948481 154.730969 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.995954 8.767701 14.296335 30.828943 171.464246 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.802671 8.530843 14.041193 30.984937 196.776202 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.631369 8.323463 13.829674 31.250380 231.221314 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 5.458316 8.101457 13.561097 31.232694 265.159038 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 5.326707 7.950289 13.441691 31.779156 335.056392 NaN NaN